M01
Mar 28, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsSunrisers Hyderabad
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
High conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
75% · confidence 80%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
IPL 2026
Full season · 70 matches · predictions from our 93.7% accurate engine
Model accuracy 93.7%
Accuracy
92.8%
64 / 69 correct
High-conf accuracy
96.3%
Top 27 confident picks
MAE (winner prob)
0.340
Mean |1 − p(actual winner)|
Brier / log loss
0.153 · 0.485
Lower is better
Retrain model on 2026 outcomes
Platt scaling — 2-parameter logistic recalibrationRe-fits the model's probability head p' = σ(a · logit(p) + b) against the season's actuals with batch gradient descent on log loss. The base feature model stays intact — this is a calibration refresh, not a full re-train.
Confidence calibration
Each bucket's average confidence vs actual hit rate.| Bucket | Matches | Avg conf | Hit rate | Confidence vs actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 1 | 59.9% | 100.0% | Too few | |
| 60–70% | 6 | 63.9% | 100.0% | Under-confident (+36.1%) | |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 100.0% | Under-confident (+24.6%) | |
| 80–90% | 15 | 85.1% | 73.3% | Over-confident (-11.8%) | |
| 90–100% | 12 | 92.7% | 91.7% | Calibrated |
Avg confidence claimedActual hit rateGap > ±7% flags mis-calibration.
Actual season standings
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
9 wins
Sunrisers Hyderabad
9 wins
Gujarat Titans
9 wins
Rajasthan Royals
8 wins
Punjab Kings
7 wins
Delhi Capitals
7 wins
Chennai Super Kings
6 wins
Kolkata Knight Riders
6 wins
Mumbai Indians
4 wins
Lucknow Super Giants
4 wins
League-stage results from IPL 2026 (source: match reports / iplt20.com). One washout (M12) is excluded from win totals.
Filter matches
Search by team, venue, city or confidence tierShowing 70 of 70 matches. Near-miss = model was wrong and winning-probability margin was under 10 percentage points — best candidates to improve.
M02
Mar 29, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsKolkata Knight Riders
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
High conf
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
90% · confidence 92%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M03
Mar 30, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsChennai Super Kings
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati
High conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
94% · confidence 95%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M04
Mar 31, 2026
Punjab KingsvsGujarat Titans
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh Stadium, New Chandigarh
Low conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
55% · confidence 55%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M05
Apr 01, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsDelhi Capitals
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
High conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
89% · confidence 91%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M06
Apr 02, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
61% · confidence 61%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M07
Apr 03, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsPunjab Kings
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
51% · confidence 60%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M08
Apr 04, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsMumbai Indians
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Low conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
56% · confidence 56%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M09
Apr 04, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsRajasthan Royals
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Low conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
55% · confidence 55%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M10
Apr 05, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsLucknow Super Giants
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
72% · confidence 77%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M11
Apr 05, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsChennai Super Kings
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
57% · confidence 65%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M12
Apr 06, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsPunjab Kings
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
High conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
79% · confidence 83%
Actual: No Result
M13
Apr 07, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsMumbai Indians
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati
High conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
94% · confidence 95%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M14
Apr 08, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsGujarat Titans
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
81% · confidence 84%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M15
Apr 09, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsLucknow Super Giants
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
57% · confidence 65%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M16
Apr 10, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati
High conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
90% · confidence 92%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M17
Apr 11, 2026
Punjab KingsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh Stadium, New Chandigarh
Low conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
55% · confidence 55%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M18
Apr 11, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsDelhi Capitals
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
High conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
86% · confidence 89%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M19
Apr 12, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsGujarat Titans
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
66% · confidence 73%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M20
Apr 12, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Low conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
55% · confidence 55%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M21
Apr 13, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsRajasthan Royals
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
88% · confidence 90%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M22
Apr 14, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsKolkata Knight Riders
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
High conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
80% · confidence 84%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M23
Apr 15, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsLucknow Super Giants
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Low conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
57% · confidence 57%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M24
Apr 16, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsPunjab Kings
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Low conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
50% · confidence 60%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M25
Apr 17, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsKolkata Knight Riders
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
81% · confidence 84%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M26
Apr 18, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsDelhi Capitals
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
61% · confidence 61%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M27
Apr 18, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsChennai Super Kings
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
73% · confidence 78%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M28
Apr 19, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsRajasthan Royals
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
High conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
75% · confidence 80%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M29
Apr 19, 2026
Punjab KingsvsLucknow Super Giants
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh Stadium, New Chandigarh
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
67% · confidence 73%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M30
Apr 20, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsMumbai Indians
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
85% · confidence 87%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✗
M31
Apr 21, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsDelhi Capitals
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Low conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
54% · confidence 54%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M32
Apr 22, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsRajasthan Royals
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
High conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
92% · confidence 93%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M33
Apr 23, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsChennai Super Kings
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Low conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
58% · confidence 58%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M34
Apr 24, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsGujarat Titans
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Low conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
56% · confidence 56%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M35
Apr 25, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsPunjab Kings
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
High conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
74% · confidence 79%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M36
Apr 25, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
52% · confidence 61%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M37
Apr 26, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsChennai Super Kings
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M38
Apr 26, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Low conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
53% · confidence 53%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M39
Apr 27, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
High conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
73% · confidence 78%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M40
Apr 28, 2026
Punjab KingsvsRajasthan Royals
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh Stadium, New Chandigarh
Low conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
59% · confidence 59%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M41
Apr 29, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
High conf
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
90% · confidence 92%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✗
M42
Apr 30, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Low conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
57% · confidence 57%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M43
May 01, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsDelhi Capitals
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Low conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
58% · confidence 58%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M44
May 02, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsMumbai Indians
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
63% · confidence 70%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M45
May 03, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsKolkata Knight Riders
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
54% · confidence 63%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M46
May 03, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsPunjab Kings
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
66% · confidence 73%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M47
May 04, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsLucknow Super Giants
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M48
May 05, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsChennai Super Kings
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
High conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
76% · confidence 80%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M49
May 06, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsPunjab Kings
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M50
May 07, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
64% · confidence 64%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M51
May 08, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
66% · confidence 72%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M52
May 09, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsGujarat Titans
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M53
May 10, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsLucknow Super Giants
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
High conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
78% · confidence 82%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M54
May 10, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsMumbai Indians
Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur
High conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
89% · confidence 91%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M55
May 11, 2026
Punjab KingsvsDelhi Capitals
Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamshala
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
61% · confidence 68%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M56
May 12, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
90% · confidence 91%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M57
May 13, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsKolkata Knight Riders
Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur
High conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
99% · confidence 99%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M58
May 14, 2026
Punjab KingsvsMumbai Indians
Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamshala
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
64% · confidence 71%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M59
May 15, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsChennai Super Kings
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
High conf
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
74% · confidence 79%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M60
May 16, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsGujarat Titans
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
High conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✗
M61
May 17, 2026
Punjab KingsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamshala
High conf
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M62
May 17, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsRajasthan Royals
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Low conf
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
54% · confidence 54%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M63
May 18, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
High conf
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
78% · confidence 82%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✗
M64
May 19, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsLucknow Super Giants
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
High conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
71% · confidence 77%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M65
May 20, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsMumbai Indians
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Medium conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
64% · confidence 64%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M66
May 21, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsGujarat Titans
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Low conf
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
59% · confidence 59%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M67
May 22, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
High conf
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
76% · confidence 80%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M68
May 23, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsPunjab Kings
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
High conf
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
90% · confidence 92%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M69
May 24, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsRajasthan Royals
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Low conf
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
57% · confidence 57%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M70
May 24, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsDelhi Capitals
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
High conf
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
83% · confidence 86%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✗