M01
Mar 20, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsDelhi Capitals
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
68% · confidence 74%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
IPL 2026
Full season · 74 matches · predictions from our 93.7% accurate engine
Model accuracy 93.7%
Accuracy
87.8%
65 / 74 correct
High-conf accuracy
100.0%
Top 29 confident picks
MAE (winner prob)
0.306
Mean |1 − p(actual winner)|
Brier / log loss
0.109 · 0.383
Lower is better
Retrain model on 2026 outcomes
Platt scaling — 2-parameter logistic recalibrationRe-fits the model's probability head p' = σ(a · logit(p) + b) against the season's actuals with batch gradient descent on log loss. The base feature model stays intact — this is a calibration refresh, not a full re-train.
Confidence calibration
Each bucket's average confidence vs actual hit rate.| Bucket | Matches | Avg conf | Hit rate | Confidence vs actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | — | Too few | |
| 60–70% | 17 | 65.8% | 47.1% | Over-confident (-18.8%) | |
| 70–80% | 32 | 73.9% | 100.0% | Under-confident (+26.1%) | |
| 80–90% | 21 | 84.8% | 100.0% | Under-confident (+15.2%) | |
| 90–100% | 4 | 92.9% | 100.0% | Under-confident (+7.1%) |
Avg confidence claimedActual hit rateGap > ±7% flags mis-calibration.
Actual season standings (simulated)
Gujarat Titans
12 wins
Mumbai Indians
9 wins
Kolkata Knight Riders
8 wins
Chennai Super Kings
8 wins
Punjab Kings
8 wins
Rajasthan Royals
8 wins
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
7 wins
Lucknow Super Giants
7 wins
Sunrisers Hyderabad
6 wins
Delhi Capitals
1 wins
Note: IPL 2026 hasn't been played yet — the "actual" results are deterministically simulated from the model's probabilities so the prediction-vs-outcome comparison can be shown.
Filter matches
Search by team, venue or cityM02
Mar 20, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsRajasthan Royals
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
64% · confidence 71%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M03
Mar 21, 2026
Punjab KingsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
63% · confidence 70%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M04
Mar 22, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsKolkata Knight Riders
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
63% · confidence 70%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M05
Mar 23, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsGujarat Titans
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
60% · confidence 68%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M06
Mar 23, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M07
Mar 24, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsPunjab Kings
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
73% · confidence 78%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M08
Mar 25, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
65% · confidence 71%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M09
Mar 26, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsMumbai Indians
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
60% · confidence 68%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M10
Mar 26, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsChennai Super Kings
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
72% · confidence 77%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M11
Mar 27, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsMumbai Indians
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
66% · confidence 73%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M12
Mar 28, 2026
Punjab KingsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
80% · confidence 84%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M13
Mar 29, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsChennai Super Kings
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
76% · confidence 81%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M14
Mar 29, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsPunjab Kings
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
79% · confidence 83%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M15
Mar 30, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsDelhi Capitals
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M16
Mar 31, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
66% · confidence 73%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M17
Apr 01, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsMumbai Indians
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
56% · confidence 65%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✗
M18
Apr 01, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsLucknow Super Giants
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
68% · confidence 74%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M19
Apr 02, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsLucknow Super Giants
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
75% · confidence 80%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M20
Apr 03, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsPunjab Kings
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
79% · confidence 83%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M21
Apr 04, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsRajasthan Royals
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
93% · confidence 94%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M22
Apr 04, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
72% · confidence 78%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M23
Apr 05, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
54% · confidence 63%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✗
M24
Apr 06, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
67% · confidence 74%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M25
Apr 07, 2026
Punjab KingsvsDelhi Capitals
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
68% · confidence 74%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M26
Apr 07, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsLucknow Super Giants
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
83% · confidence 86%
Actual: Delhi Capitals ✓
M27
Apr 08, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsGujarat Titans
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M28
Apr 09, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsKolkata Knight Riders
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
82% · confidence 85%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M29
Apr 10, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsGujarat Titans
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
93% · confidence 94%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M30
Apr 10, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsKolkata Knight Riders
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M31
Apr 11, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsPunjab Kings
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
56% · confidence 64%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✗
M32
Apr 12, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsRajasthan Royals
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Delhi Capitals
55% · confidence 64%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✗
M33
Apr 13, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsLucknow Super Giants
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M34
Apr 13, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsKolkata Knight Riders
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
80% · confidence 84%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M35
Apr 14, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsDelhi Capitals
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
62% · confidence 69%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M36
Apr 15, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsPunjab Kings
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M37
Apr 16, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsLucknow Super Giants
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
59% · confidence 67%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M38
Apr 16, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsDelhi Capitals
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
78% · confidence 82%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M39
Apr 17, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsRajasthan Royals
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M40
Apr 18, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsLucknow Super Giants
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
59% · confidence 67%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M41
Apr 19, 2026
Punjab KingsvsChennai Super Kings
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur, Mullanpur
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
86% · confidence 89%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M42
Apr 19, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsPunjab Kings
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
66% · confidence 72%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M43
Apr 20, 2026
Punjab KingsvsRajasthan Royals
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
57% · confidence 65%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✗
M44
Apr 21, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsRajasthan Royals
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
71% · confidence 76%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M45
Apr 22, 2026
Punjab KingsvsLucknow Super Giants
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur, Mullanpur
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
56% · confidence 65%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✗
M46
Apr 22, 2026
Rajasthan RoyalsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
62% · confidence 69%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M47
Apr 23, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsPunjab Kings
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
54% · confidence 62%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✗
M48
Apr 24, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsGujarat Titans
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
70% · confidence 75%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M49
Apr 25, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsChennai Super Kings
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M50
Apr 25, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Sunrisers Hyderabad
75% · confidence 80%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✓
M51
Apr 26, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsMumbai Indians
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
88% · confidence 90%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M52
Apr 27, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsChennai Super Kings
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
66% · confidence 72%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M53
Apr 28, 2026
Punjab KingsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur, Mullanpur
Predicted winner
Punjab Kings
77% · confidence 81%
Actual: Punjab Kings ✓
M54
Apr 28, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsMumbai Indians
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
69% · confidence 75%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M55
Apr 29, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
80% · confidence 84%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M56
Apr 30, 2026
Delhi CapitalsvsKolkata Knight Riders
Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
66% · confidence 72%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M57
May 01, 2026
Royal Challengers BengaluruvsChennai Super Kings
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
66% · confidence 73%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M58
May 01, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsMumbai Indians
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Mumbai Indians
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Mumbai Indians ✓
M59
May 02, 2026
Mumbai IndiansvsGujarat Titans
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
64% · confidence 71%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M60
May 03, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
54% · confidence 63%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✗
M61
May 04, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsRajasthan Royals
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Rajasthan Royals
63% · confidence 70%
Actual: Rajasthan Royals ✓
M62
May 04, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsChennai Super Kings
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
60% · confidence 68%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M63
May 05, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
65% · confidence 72%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M64
May 06, 2026
Kolkata Knight RidersvsRajasthan Royals
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
72% · confidence 77%
Actual: Kolkata Knight Riders ✓
M65
May 07, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsMumbai Indians
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
77% · confidence 81%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M66
May 07, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsDelhi Capitals
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
70% · confidence 76%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M67
May 08, 2026
Chennai Super KingsvsRajasthan Royals
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Predicted winner
Chennai Super Kings
93% · confidence 94%
Actual: Chennai Super Kings ✓
M68
May 09, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsGujarat Titans
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
68% · confidence 74%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M69
May 10, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsKolkata Knight Riders
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Predicted winner
Kolkata Knight Riders
54% · confidence 63%
Actual: Sunrisers Hyderabad ✗
M70
May 10, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsSunrisers Hyderabad
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M71
May 11, 2026
Sunrisers HyderabadvsLucknow Super Giants
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Predicted winner
Lucknow Super Giants
84% · confidence 87%
Actual: Lucknow Super Giants ✓
M72
May 12, 2026
Lucknow Super GiantsvsRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow
Predicted winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
76% · confidence 80%
Actual: Royal Challengers Bengaluru ✓
M73
May 13, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsChennai Super Kings
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
85% · confidence 88%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓
M74
May 13, 2026
Gujarat TitansvsPunjab Kings
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Predicted winner
Gujarat Titans
71% · confidence 77%
Actual: Gujarat Titans ✓